3 0 obj The economic IOP is used at the political level to influence the behavior of another state or organization.9 This is normally achieved through foreign aid, trade agreements, tariffs, embargos, or economic sanctions. As Chinas economy and its economic statecraft become more sophisticated, Beijing is sharpening and expanding its coercive economic toolkit. WebWithout power, a nation has no means to implement its plan to achieve its objectives. The National Intelligence Councils Global Trends Report indicates that the blurring of peacetime and wartime, the ease of disruption caused by nonstate groups, increase in standoff and remote attack capabilities, and new concerns about nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction are shaping conflicts that are more diffuse, diverse, and disruptive.24 The 2019 National Intelligence Strategy provides some guidelines on the trends and focus areas such as strategic intelligence, anticipatory intelligence, current operations intelligence, and cyber threat intelligence.25. The United States will need to harness the intelligence instrument to meet the new environment. This is probably most evident in the developing world, particularly Africa. China has been a practitioner of economic statecraft throughout its history, and in recent decades since Deng Xiaoping opened the country in the 1970s. In this sense, power and policy are intertwined. Shows of force or military adventurism are thus possible consequences of Chinas slowing growth. The U.S. military has more resources and planning experience compared to other agencies and partners, which provide a tremendous opportunity to coordinate, synchronize, and harmonize the instruments and subsequently the mission partners involved. The U.S. military focuses primarily on the kinetic employment of the military, prioritizing the big M to demonstrate power, destroy the enemy, and celebrate victory. It also offers preliminary recommendations for U.S. policymakers and stakeholders to begin addressing the challenge. China also deftly combines its economic coercion with economic inducements and other tools of statecraft, pairing its sticks with carrots and diplomatic negotiations. Those in Lebanon and Tunisia are at least 20 points more likely to see the influence as negative. Second, a comparison of the US DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic) model will show that the US remains the dominant global power, but that China is investing in When targeting specific actors, the United States can achieve desired effects by focusing on critical vulnerabilities and capabilities without suffering second- and third-order effects caused by the economic IOP. To dismantle the VEO and criminal networks and neutralize high-value individuals, the U.S. Government and military have focused intelligence at the operational and tactical level for the past 20 years, relying heavily on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; dynamic targeting; and nodal analysis. In the Asia-Pacific region, ties with the U.S. are more frequently rated as good in India, South Korea and Japan. As a result, a separate IOP is necessary. In South Korea and Japan, too, 66% and 51%, respectively, say relations are negative. WebNational Power (CNP) approach, it will show that China is deliberately increasing power across of broad spectrum of instruments in an attempt to challenge the US. (a0Z`%. The U.S. remains the top choice for all three Latin American countries surveyed. The measures may also have long-term effects in deterring and shaping countries foreign policy interests that go well beyond the short-term economic costs. Those in Turkey and Israel say strong ties with the U.S. are more important, and those in Lebanon and Tunisia say close economic ties with China are more important. Major Cesar Augusto Rodriguez, USAF, is Chief of the Air Force Section Honduras, U.S. Military Group, U.S. Embassy Tegucigalpa. The key U.S. organizations for the legal aspect are the Department of State and Department of Justice, which provide legal expertise for national and international law while working with partner-nation justice departments to achieve an understanding of key legal issues. Finally, nongovernmental organizations should advance government efforts by supporting research on this topic. China wants to be the dominant economic and military power of the world, spreading its authoritarian vision for society and its corrupt practices worldwide. ), Next Generation National Security Fellows, The Shawn Brimley Next Generation National Security Leaders Fellowship, Joseph S. Nye, Jr. National Security Internship and Mentoring Program, 2022 CNAS National Security Conference: Security in the Balance, Opec's Surprise Cut: Is the Global Economy Ready, The Lawfare Podcast: A New Sanctions Approach for Humanitarian Assistance, Sound On: Foreign Tech Ban, Jan 6 Tape, Tim Ryan on Energy. As such, investing in the right capabilities is View All Articles & Multimedia. When directly comparing the perceived positive influence from the U.S. and China, outside of the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese economic influence is largely seen in more positive terms than American influence. Majorities in those countries see economic relations with the U.S. positively, while only minorities say the same of China. As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. DIME-FIL.4. The intelligence IOP involves many mission partners, all with varying and important missions articulated in the following categories: national agencies, allied partners and agencies, host-nation resources, and private sources. The DIME-FIL concept is a natural progression to a globally integrated approach that could be achieved through incorporating the key mission partners of all instruments in interorganizational exercises, the global campaign plan, and stability operations planning. National Defense University Those in the Asia-Pacific region are more likely than not to describe U.S. economic influence in their country in positive terms. The financial and intelligence IOPs are closely linked, delivering more precise effects related to financial systems and funding, whereas the economic IOP is tied to the diplomatic IOP, broader in scope and related to interstate commerce. Opinions in the Latin American countries surveyed are similar, though less effusive; fewer than two-thirds in all three countries say their economic ties with the U.S. are positive, and substantial minorities say the ties are bad. The Sound On Podcast speaks to Emily Kilcrease, Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy, Economics, and Security Program the Center for a New American Security on new legisla View All Reports The acronym DIME-FIL is colloquially being used in the joint lexicon, but the term has not been specifically defined or included in doctrine. Planning should seriously consider harmonizing DIME-FIL, whole-of-government, and interorganizational concepts in the U.S. peer competition environment to compete in the gray zone and address U.S. problem sets. Still, publics are relatively divided, as no more than half name either country as the top economy in most countries. WebNATOs deterrence and defence posture is based on, among other factors, an effective combination of cutting-edge weapons systems and platforms, and forces trained to work together seamlessly. Instead, Beijing prefers approaches that do not legally link a foreign policy dispute to the coercive measures, creating public deniability and greater optionality for escalation and de-escalation. National security reviews now include transactions in which a foreign investment was merely a minority interest instead of a controlling share and extend review powers into the real estate sector. U.S. officials abroad can play an essential role by gathering currently unavailable data and encouraging foreign partners to take preemptive measures. All of the cases studied where China acted alone involve China using economic coercion against democratic countries, and Beijing generally targets politically influential constituencies capable of pushing for policy change, regardless of whether or not the targeted constituency has any involvement in the policy to which China objects. 1 Katerina Oskarrson and Robin Barnett, The Effectiveness of DIMEFIL Instruments of Power in the Gray Zone, Open Publications 1, no. Dr. Valbona Zeneli, Marshall Centers professor of National Security Studies, talks about Crime and Corruption, August 12, 2016, during Program on Countering Transnational Organized Crime (George C. Marshall European To succeed, commanders and their staffs will need to understand, select, and synchronize IOPs to ensure a whole-of-government and international approach to these problem sets. Currently, doctrine and planning emphasize the DIME model.2 The scant literature on IOPs mentions the addition of FIL, but the focus has been its application to combating terrorism. By Cesar Augusto Rodriguez, Timothy Charles Walton, and Hyong Chu In Nigeria and South Africa, the tendency to name the U.S. is a departure from last year, when more in both countries named China as the worlds top economic power. The Trump administration should also begin to identify trade policy tools and other tools that can be used to build the resilience of partners to resist Chinese economic coercion. This contradiction will test the Chinese Communist Partys will and ability to implement necessary, and possibly politically costly, reforms. Those in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and India especially prefer ties with the U.S.; they are more likely to choose relations with the U.S. over China by about 40 percentage points or more. Finally, information-sharing between agencies and partnerships with external agencies and nations will be paramount to optimize intelligence activities, make faster decisions, and create unity of effort with mission partners. The America First strategy relies on U.S. partners to do more, which requires joint planners and commanders to leverage all resources, capabilities, and instruments in a concerted effort to achieve a more safe, stable, and secure world. WebWithout power, a nation has no means to implement its plan to achieve its objectives. But, in much of the Asia-Pacific region, people are more likely to evaluate the U.S. economic influence positively than the Chinese, or at least to see them comparably. Still, Lithuanians are 23 percentage points more likely to see the U.S. as the top economy. For the four Middle East and North African countries surveyed, opinions are mixed. It will attempt to answer this question by applying the various instruments of national power to form a qualitative assessment of the degree to which NATO exerts itself in these those power domains and how effectively these prepare NATO for conventional warfare. Economic coercion is a global issue that cannot be addressed without adequate international information sharing and coordination. <>>> But in South Korea and Japan, upwards of nine-in-ten say both superpowers have a great deal of influence. WebThe military instrument of national power can be used in a wide variety of ways that vary in purpose, scale, risk, and combat intensity. About four-in-ten or more see Chinese influence positively in the Latin American nations surveyed as well. Strategic Asia Program Strategic Asia Peter Harrell is a former adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. A median of 41% across the 14 EU member nations surveyed name China, compared with a median of 39% who say the same about the United States. Those in Lebanon and Tunisia are about as likely to say the U.S. or China have a great deal or fair amount of influence. Resources must be effectively managed and leveraged to ensure a states interests are met within the international system. Around three-quarters or more take this position in India (74%), Australia (85%) and the Philippines (89%). Recently, as Chinas market has grown ever more important to global companies, China has also begun targeting individual corporations with coercive measures if they fail to adopt Beijings preferred policy positions. In particular, potential adversaries such as China and Russia, have developed new techniques such as (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax Sixteen publics were asked whether they prefer stronger economic ties with the U.S. or China. For example, across three of the Middle East and North African countries surveyed, people are substantially more likely to describe Chinas role in their economy in positive terms than they are Americas role. Despite how long the DIME has been used for describing the instruments of national power, U.S. policymakers and strategists have long understood that there are many more instruments involved in national security policy development and implementation. Clarifying the definition of FIL IOPs, identifying key mission partners, and detecting potential applications for each of the new FIL instruments can mitigate the gap in doctrine and planning. 66y% For example, in early 2018 U.S. airlines began to experience retaliation for listing Taiwan as a separate country. 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"Chinese use of economic coercion is likely to shape U.S. policy options in Asia and constrain both U.S. policymakers and companies maneuverability globally.". Peter Harrell, Elizabeth Rosenberg and Edoardo Saravalle. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. China, too, I would argue uses hard instruments of power, particularly economic power, for soft power purposes. China learns from previous experiences, adopting tactics that work and abandoning those that do not. In the past decade, China has expanded its set of such economic instruments to include sticks, not just carrots. Chinas National Power: A Colossus with Iron or Clay Feet? Attitudes in the sub-Saharan African countries surveyed are also positive, with roughly seven-in-ten or more in each country saying relations are positive. The goal of this report is to begin spurring a global, coordinated response. Chinas lead over the U.S. is especially clear in Germany, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and France, where people are at least 10 percentage points more likely to see China as the leading economy. This is especially true in Lebanon, where there is a 40-point difference between the share who say their ties with the U.S. are good and the share who say ties with China are good. Emily Kilcrease. For too long Chinese economic coercion has escaped sustained scrutiny. Last year, an unprecedented $150.5 billion in two-way trade occurred between China and Brazil, and China is also engaged in similar activities with other nations, such as Russia and Pakistan. The instrument choices are impactful since resources are not unlimited and since each instrument consumes a varying amount of It analyzes and classifies the major features of Chinas economic coercion and its implications for the United States. Greeks, Italians, and Hungarians similarly evaluate the U.S. economy as more powerful than the Chinese economy, but by a slimmer margin (5 points in all three countries). In this sense, power and policy are intertwined. Although the focus of the financial IOP has been on the VEO threat, it could be expanded to address other threats and actors including transnational crime organizations, state proxy groups, nonstate actors, and states.

21 JP 3-13, Information Operations (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, November 27, 2012, Incorporating Change 1, November 20, 2014), available at . Across the Asia-Pacific region, six-in-ten or more in each country say their economic ties to the U.S. are currently good. Majorities in most countries surveyed say China has a substantial amount of influence on the economic affairs of their countries. The cases point to Beijings sophistication in its use of coercion. %PDF-1.7 % Spaniards, Swedes and Bulgarians are more muted, with about 5-point differences in their evaluations of the two economies. The emergence of a new strategic environment necessitates an orchestration of multiple instruments of power. 7 Financial systems can include formal banking, informal systems, online value storage transfer systems, or cash couriers.

The law portion of law enforcement pertains to the legal expertise required to understand national law, international law, and foreign laws. It is the responsibility of planners and commanders to synchronize the instruments and create a more strategic globally integrated approach. Conversely, those in Latin America are more likely to see influence from the U.S. And, in the Middle East and North Africa, those in Israel and Turkey are more likely to identify influence from the U.S., with a difference of about 20 points or more. In five European countries that have consistently been asked which economy is strongest over the past decade France, Germany, Spain, the UK and Poland China has come out on top more often than not. The enforcement aspect requires law enforcement agencies to work closely via the diplomatic IOP with data from the intelligence IOP to prosecute crimes and conduct activities at the tactical level through the military IOP or local law enforcement. 3 National Strategy for Combatting Terrorism (Washington, DC: The White House, 2003), 15, available at . Commanders could improve U.S. legitimacy with strategic communication, clarifying the message that the United States wants to enable countries to establish their own rules of law and improve their security and stability. More in the three sub-Saharan countries surveyed say the U.S. has a positive economic influence than say it has a negative influence. China, too, I would argue uses hard instruments of power, particularly economic power, for soft power purposes. In particular, potential adversaries such as China and Russia, have developed new techniques such as U.S. military legal expertise should broaden to international law and be incorporated into planning (not just law of armed conflict and rules of engagement). (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. Japanese are relatively divided on the issue, with 42% citing positive influence and 39% negative. used to fund so-called Islamic State operations, in southern Syria, October 23, 2019 (U.S. Army/Kyle Alvarez), The premier professional military and academic publishing house, By Cesar Augusto Rodriguez, Timothy Charles Walton, and Hyong Chu, Dr. Valbona Zeneli, Marshall Centers professor of National Security Studies, talks about Crime and Corruption, August 12, 2016, during Program on Countering Transnational Organized Crime (George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies/Christine June), Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America, Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States, Identify the Mission Partners Involved with Each, Instrument and Incorporate Them Early and Often in Planning, Coalition-aligned security force Maghaweir al-Thowra seize $3.5 million in illicit drugs, including nearly 850,000 regional amphetamine Captagon pills, used to fund so-called Islamic State operations, in southern Syria, October 23, 2019 (U.S. Army/Kyle Alvarez), Train and Plan with DIME-FIL for Near-Peer Threats, National Strategy for Combatting Terrorism, Military Strategic Plan for the Global War on Terrorism, Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Joint Force 2020, Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America: Sharpening the American Militarys Edge, Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism, National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America, Hosted by Defense Media Activity - WEB.mil. Identify the Mission Partners Involved with Each Instrument and Incorporate Them Early and Often in Planning. Rachel Ziemba. Favorable views of Chinese economic influence are more common among those who think their country has good economic ties with China and those who prefer a close economic relationship to China. The increased understanding of the FIL IOPs allows the joint community to update doctrine, synchronize, and involve mission partners early in planning and perform in the competitive environment, ultimately achieving unity of effort and effectively protecting national interests. An increased understanding of the FIL IOPs will allow the U.S. military to update doctrine, synchronize the IOPs, become more globally integrated, and perform in the competitive environment, ultimately achieving unity of effort and effectively protecting national interests. Opinions elsewhere are more clear-cut. The U.S. and China are tied in Lebanon, with a third naming each as the top economy. Some logical publications to address the gap by defining, explaining, or listing the FIL IOPs are Joint Doctrine Note 1-18, Strategy; Joint Publication (JP) 1, Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States; JP 3-08, Interorganizational Cooperation; and the Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning. Unlike other IOPs, the legal IOP is complex, incredibly diverse, and rapidly changing over short periods of time. The difference is especially pronounced in India, where nearly three-quarters say they have a good economic relationship with the U.S. and about four-in-ten say the same about China, a difference of 35 percentage points. 107-56, 107th Cong., October 26, 2001, available at . Across the 16 nations asked, a median of 63% say China has a great deal or fair amount of influence.1. The two-pronged law enforcement instrument focuses on adherence to and enforcement of laws mainly through State and Justice, as well as DOD, granting the United States authority and legitimacy to take action and enabling the United States to detain criminals and restore order. % China has targeted countries such as the Philippines for their challenges to Chinas maritime claims and Norway for its alleged intrusion in Chinese domestic politics for the awarding of a Nobel Peace Prize to dissident Liu Xiaobo. In Asia-Pacific countries, evaluations of Chinese influence are fairly divided; Australians, Filipinos and Indonesians are more likely to see Chinese influence as positive than negative, while Japanese, South Koreans and Indians identify Chinese influence as more negative than positive. As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. WebNational Power (CNP) approach, it will show that China is deliberately increasing power across of broad spectrum of instruments in an attempt to challenge the US. Strategy: Directing the Instruments of National Power By Steven Aftergood April 30, 2018 The tools that can be used to assert national power and influence have often been summarized by the acronym DIME Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic. The more the United States becomes irreplaceable in the supply chains of the future, the harder it will be for China to use coercive measures against Washington. In particular, potential adversaries such as China and Russia, have developed new techniques such as Indians and Filipinos are about 10 percentage points more likely to see American influence on their economies, while those in Australia are 18 points more likely to see Chinas muscle. The cases also illustrate key aspects of Chinese targeting. Despite how long the DIME has been used for describing the instruments of national power, U.S. policymakers and strategists have long understood that there are many more instruments involved in national security policy development and implementation.
Train and Plan with DIME-FIL for Near-Peer Threats. When China undertakes multilateral coercive economic measures, such as sanctions, Beijing has helped to reinforce global normsfor example, nonproliferation. Lieutenant Commander Hyong Chu, USN, is Supplier Relations and Program Management Division Chief of the Strategic Acquisition Programs in Defense Logistics Agency Land and Maritime. In the sub-Saharan African countries surveyed, only those in Nigeria would rather have strong economic ties with China than with the U.S. About three-in-ten in Nigeria also volunteer that strong ties with both are more important.

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